Worst case scenario with Covid

Follow the next sequence of statements and judge if any consequtive conclusion is halfway right.

This is not a welcome epidemic in most countries. It could not have arrived at a more … interesting… period on human history. The effects of mass shut down, no matter how haphazzardly, is already destabilizing, politically scarring and met with fire and fury. As rich people will lose a noticeable slice of their affluence per month and are already running around hystical demanding that, say, in the US the economy must be opened. And we all know Rich people write policy over there.

  • So far in typical US states (and things are better elsewhere) about 1% has been infected. In New York the fatality rate comes down to 8% (even though that goof Zoltan Istvan claims it’s 0,02% and “one in fivehundred dead is acceptable”. Right-o Zolly, well done). In New York right 21 thousand people lie already dead and rotting in their graves, cooling trucks or have been incinerated. Mortality is now certain to be AT LEAST between 1 and 3% of contaminated cases ANYWHERE.
  • To get to actual herd immunity, you’d need to infect so many people that at least if one in fifty would die. In the US that’s about, what, six million people. If we sustainably do this (i.e. those infected that need treatment get appropriate treatment) we can only expose 1-2% per, say, month or so, which would mean the process of building “herd immunity” would kill several million in the US (and if you logjam or overload or chokepoint the medical service industries you go full Mengele euthanasia on the population it might be more than ten million deaths).
  • Things are badly managed and horrendous in the US, the richest country on the planet. Things are exponentially worse in most of the dveloping world. In the developing nations there is little semblance of state apparatus, food reserves, medical services, financial buffers, healthy people, rational responses or proper political will, and yeah, you’d get closer to or above that above that 10% lethality mark. So let’s for the sake of argument do a racism and lump all developed, poor, semi-developed and developing together (say, any economical paradigm ranging from Brazil to Peru to the Congo to South Africa to Egypt to Pakistan to Uzbekibekistan to Indonesia and Bangladesh and we are talking, what, five million billion people? That would be, and I am being as charitable as I can be, between fifty million deaths world wide (a pathetically low estimate) and 500 million.
  • … and the planetary eradication of any bit of capitalist credibility. I don’t think you can “austerity” yourself out this hellstorm. The current geopolitical and geopolitical system is going to die. In many cases in bloody, hysterical revolt involving the most brutal industrial style genocide technologies as we have recently seen in the Gaza strip, Iraq, etc.
  • Covid19 is a corona virus. Never before in human history has there been a cure or treatments for Corona viruses. Normal development of a vaccin takes about 18 months. MAYBE if we vomit a few hundred billions at the problem it might be a bit quicker, but equally likely it will be impossible to develop a vaccin or treatment regimen. And even if we do, Corona viruses mutate faster than a Micheal Jackson on acid, and any vaccination might last only a couple of months. And even then at each mutation wave still people would die. And then there’s no guarantee even after vaccination a sizeable part of your population may still be shedding viruses on every fomite or in every exhalation and infecting people.


1 – In countries that shut down significantly, and have proper medical services – mortality may get to 1% or more total mortality (or, say something like 0,01% of the population on average dying every month, for 1-2 years) , and that’s guaranteed to be traumatic and society disrupting. It’s gona make people real angry. In the Netherlands “a country with relatively competent leaders, financial reserves, somewhat loyal and civic-minded people, as well as proper developed world health care, universal coverage and sick leave” this would mean a few thousand people dying per month, for easily two years or more, i.e. a grande total no less than fifty thousand or so. Probably a best case scenario.

2 – for a wishy wasy country with asshat politicians, zero social graces, no tradition of solidarity, everyone has guns, people are already financially barren, zero wellfare infrastructure, psychotic state debts, a medical system that would be generous only in a death camp, mass racism and economic disparity, an already grotesque level of entitlement with rich whites, extremes of political instability etc. etc. mortality will be easily four times higher per capita. No I am not going to explain what “per capita” is to those people. In other words we are talking maybe under a million deaths spread out over 2 two years if they maintain a tight lockdown sphincter, and many times that if they don’t exert state control. Fat chance on that – the current president is a senile psychopath rapist, and the next president is also likely to be an even more senile psychopath rapist. Good luck with that. My guess? 10-30 million lower estimate. Wait until the infection starts hitting the heartland hard. Then you’ll see some real vicious anger and mass hysteria.

3 – The United States is over as a political entity of any relevance. A current political establishment can’t survive under those circumstances. Ditto Saudi Arabia, where things are even worse. Ditto China. Ditto Russia. I anticipate the first revolutions to start somewhere later this year, as the virus flares up, as people develop serious mental breakdown from whateve measures are imposed, when criminal desperation and debts kick in, when stores start closing down and services or food security evaporates in large parts of your country, etc. etc. etc. Once you get there, ‘the social contract unravels’. I anticipate that LITERALLY in the united states about half right wing or establishment or name politicians will either have left the country (where exactly? I say Europe should close borders for these people) or will have died from violence, or more specifically lynchings. I won’t be surprised if I see before the end of 2020 several republican politicians massacred and mutilated in the streets of DC, right there on CNN.

4 – Now in countries were all the above variables are significantly below any level of acceptable or optimal we may anticipate (and this may seem surreal) at least as much as, to several times the death we had in world wars one and two combined in several years. And if the virus keeps mutating and killing, we can anticipate a trailing graph of, what, ten years of this before we can get to everyone and cure them? the Black Death was with humanity more than a thousand years, what’s a decade? Is there a solution or a fix? Yes there is – mass testing something like every month – and those tested and not shedding getting viruses getting an electronic authentication card they can (=being allowed by the state to) lead a life we are mostly familiar with – restaurants, parties, cinema, walks in the part, sex with random strangers, sports matches, school etc. Those who are sick, and/or carriers shedding viruses will be legally quarantined. If you are no excuritiatingly sick or you are a non-symptomatic carrier and have the responsibility to self-impose and stay home, you’ll get a food/personal care/medicines package every few days, courtesy of the state.

Don’t expect caviar. If you are really sick, you will get adequate medical care, although the care may be a bit impersonal for most people. So yeah, that’s a bit of a police state .. but most people will be in staunch agreement it is necessary. Refuse to get tested or self-quarantine you go straight into state appointed quarantine, and that will be no fun.

5 – A significant slice of people that recuperate from the worst of this infection will be effectively unemployable, needing a year of phsyical therapy, will need medication, will be categorically unable to work, may have lung, heart, brain damage, in some cases partial paralysis. This is very expensive for a rich country, and anywhere else it will may very well be a slow drawn out death sentence. Don’t expect much help from what is left of the state or your fellow citizens by then, as you starve in the streets.

You will sweeping changes in how we consume, what we eat, how we work, how we travel and commute, how we treat one another as human beings, how we consume media, how we game, what we expect of our governments. We may utterly need a basic income, we may see massive debt cancellation programs. But we may also see poor countries being completely abandoned and effectively disappearing in mass unrest. I wouldn’t want to be in a country like Nigeria in a couple of months.

I am sorry.