Ray predicted stuff, and is doing so at an exponentially more cautious rate. Ray is the spiritual heart of ‘technological expectationism‘; i.e. Ray exemplifies the most optimistic and far reaching expectations about the future. Even the future where we all may live to experience it.
That degree of being permitted to anticipate radical change is surreal beyond anything we have seen in history. I have read TSIN a few times with a wry grin. Central to who I am as a human being is the near pathological and inborn loathing I feel for contemporary constraints – and as a result the equally inborn desire I have to feel liberated from them through what I’d feel would be magic. My life has been lived crooked, twisted and deformed and other than jumping off a high ledge the only hope I have live to see a radical reshake to this whole ‘contemporary constraints’ business. I want the human state changed and I have very little sympathy for the people that don’t want that. I will be completely inconsiderate towards their interests – my finger is firmly on the fast forward button. Because I want out of the current constraints.
Ray is clearly charting a future where the granularity of human ingenuity will deconstruct and reconstruct the human state. The result will plausibly be transitional, and thus Transhuman and what will come next will be to human as is an Orion rocket to a horse cart.
So the question remains – is Ray the crazy flutist leading his merry bunch of futurophiles in a crazy march into the graveyard of dead ideologies? Judge for yourself 🙂
How My Predictions Are Faring
How my predictions are faring In this essay I review the accuracy of my predictions going back a quarter of a century. To my knowledge, a comprehensive exercise along these lines is reasonably unique. Included herein is a discussion of my predictions from The Age of Intelligent Machines (which I wrote in the 1980s), all 147 predictions for 2009 in The Age of Spiritual Machines (which I wrote in the 1990s), plus others. Perhaps my most important predictions are implicit in my exponential graphs. These trajectories have indeed continued on course and I discuss these updated graphs below. My core thesis, which I call the ―law of accelerating returns,‖ is that fundamental measures of information technology follow predictable and exponential trajectories, belying the conventional wisdom that ―you can‘t predict the future. ……