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Crashwatch

Posted on January 2, 2013 by Khannea Sun'Tzu

Quoted from

January 1, 2013. This page is retired. Ten years ago it really seemed like the whole system was about to come apart. People who saw a crash coming were seeing things that were being ignored by people who expected business as usual. Yet we were still wrong. After seeing how little daily life has changed after the 2008 financial collapse, seven years with global oil production on a plateau, and two catastrophic hurricanes, I think the big mistake of doomers was assuming that failures would have positive feedback like a house of cards. At this point, anyone still using the “house of cards” metaphor is not a serious analyst but an entertainer. It’s clear that the interconnectedness of modern complex systems makes them stronger, not weaker.

This is especially true of technological systems. I no longer expect any kind of tech crash, except that resource-intensive benefits like driving and eating meat will become more expensive and less available to poor people. Economies will collapse as they adjust to decades of zero or negative growth, weaker nations and businesses will fail, but computers will continue to get stronger, and manufacturing will adapt to resource decline by becoming more efficient and better able to compete with human workers. At the same time, no government that can possibly avoid it will allow its citizens to starve, so there will be even more subsidies for industrially produced human dog food.

Over the next few decades I see the global system passing through a bottleneck as it shifts from nonrenewable to renewable resources. We fantasize about apocalypse because we want the world to get looser, but I see it getting crappier and tighter. When we emerge from the bottleneck, life will get nicer… but are we coming out of the bottle, or going in? I think the “singularity” will match its meaning in astrophysics: the center of a black hole, with 90% of increasing computing power being used to stop the other 10% from doing anything interesting. I imagine an airtight sci-fi utopia/dystopia, where almost everything will be automated, nobody will have to do any work, everyone will be comfortable and safe, and we will have amazing powers to entertain ourselves. Other than that, we will have less power than any people in history or prehistory. The world will be lifeless and meaningless, a human museum, a suicide machine. Making the world alive again will be our next challenge.

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Hi there. I am khannea – transhumanist, outspoken transgender, libertine and technoprogressive. You may email me at khannea.suntzu@gmail.com.

 

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Blogroll

  • Colin Furze
  • Philosophy Tube
  • David Pakman
  • Humanist Report
  • Don Giulio Prisco
  • ContraPoints
  • Adam Something
  • Reddit
  • Jake Tran
  • IEET
  • Climate Town
  • Art Station
  • Orions Arm
  • PBS Space Time
  • Louis C K
  • Erik Wernquist
  • My G+
  • Amanda's Twitter
  • Kyle Hill
  • Second Thought
  • What Da Math
  • David Pearce
  • Shuffle Dance (et.al.)
  • Isaac Arthur
  • My Youtube
  • The Young Turks

Pages

  • – T H E – F A R – F R O N T I E R –
  • Hoi
  • I made Funda this suggestion :)
  • My Political Positions
  • Shaping the Edges of the Future
  • Some Of My Art

Tags

Animal Cruelty Anon Artificial Intelligence Automation BioMedicine BitCoin Cinematography Collapse Degeneracy and Depravity Facebook Gaga Gangster Culture Humor Idiocracy Intelligence (or lack thereoff) Ivory Towers Khannea Larry Niven Life Extension MetaVerse Monetary Systems Moore's Law Peak Oil Philosophy Politics Poverty Prometheus Psychology Real Politiek Revolution Science Fiction Second Life Singularity social darwinism Societal Disparity Space Industrialization Speculative Bubbles Taboo Uncategorized UpWing US Von Clausewitz White Rabbit Wild Allegories Youtube

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