Dear Khannea

Hi K!

“The collapse of petrodollar, is that a good thing or bad? How will for example Sweden be affected? How will i personally get affected?”

Hi Kris. The US implemented and imposed a world financial order at the end of WW2. At the time this system, which I can call “the global trade reserve currency” means that the Dollar became the default trade currency for all big transactions world wide. Aluminium, wheat, oil, etcetera. This made dollars a currency that was in high demand, and for a few decades this was good to the US. But the US needed oil. At the end of WW2 the US closed a pact of true friendship with the Saudi, since Saudi had most oil. The US became an industrial apparatus that turned oil in to prosperity. The Saudi were handsomely rewarded and agreed to equally handsomely reinvest this money in US corporations and US government bonds. However this didn’t keep on working and in the 1970s oil prices went up sharply. This was the first oil crisis, and in part it was political and in part it was a renegotiation inspired by OPEC. Up till that time “money” was defined by gold, but Nixon decided that gold back US dollars wasn’t a good idea. From that moment onwards the US dollar wasn’t backed by Gold, but by the US military apparatus. The US used force projection – primarily the threat of nuclear weapons – and that allowed the US to act as part schoolground bully, part world police. Sadly this meant that the US could endlessly print dollars, and thereby fund all imports it could ever want. Or so it assumed. In the 1990 China exploded across the world stage in exports, and the US had nowhere to back away when its dollar started deflating in effective purchase value. It is completely self-evident for everyone who is paying attention that this gluttunous party is ending in a matter of a few years (maybe less, maybe more). The problem is that upon the demise of the petro dollar the US effectively becomes a third world country in purchase power (probably about as poor as brazil) and a completely unmanageable society, for a list of multiple reasons. The US will be unable to import the oil it needs and will be unable to transition to a society that needs less oil. This will be nothing short than deadly to US society. These reasons and the consequences of such a collapse are analyzed in excruciating detail by Chris Martenson, Jared Diamond, Michael Rupert, Max Kaiser, Dmitry Orlov and on web sites such as Zero Hedge.

A collapse will be probably more gruesome than the 1930s collapse for the US. Again, Dmitry Orlov has covered this in great detail. The US is however clearly taking steps to mitigate the pain of this imminent transitional phase. It is obvious that the events on 11 September 2001 must be read in this light, and those in charge knew precisely what was happening decades ago. The US decided in the late 90s to become a repressive society. The elites in the US realized the eventual outcome and they didn’t want to foot the bill for a collapse – in essence what has been happening ever since has been the equivalent of a society wide yard sale. Hence the elites appoint a suitably psychopathic henchman in to the white house did what they felt was necessary.

The collapse of the oil dollar will be severe for most countries world wide, and will be extremely bad in the third world, where high oil prices causally translate to starvation. I predict a decrease of effective affluence in western Europe of about 50%, maybe a little less severe in Sweden than in the Netherlands. For several years it will be very bad in Europe, but as US oil demand falls away, shortly afterwards Europe will be able to get oil a lot cheaper and this may spur on an economic boom. My expectation is that upon the actual dollar collapse much of the world will become an interlocking patchwork of countries declaring a state of emergency. There will be a pervasive climate of revolt and some countries may resort to “dirty tricks” to keep their populations in check.

How to end the Israel-Palestina affair, now with the “arabic spring” with hezbolla on the move again?

It is irrelevant, or will soon become irrelevant. A few years after the collapse of the dollar Israel will be made to use nuclear weapons on most of the middle east and palestinians will be evicted from Israel. I am not sure if Israeli politicians will actually be this ruthless, but signs are not looking good. My expectation is that ten, fifteen years from now much of the middle east will have experienced massive die off, famine, war, civil war, infectious disease. In some middle eastern countries die-off may be as high as 25% of the total population. A lot of that will be suffered by migrating people living (and dying) in refugee camps.

Is capital punishment good or bad?

Capital punishment is a waste of precious resources, and the consequences of this measure are worse than the benefit. If it worked I would be in favor of it, in some cases, but I remain convinced it is extremely counterproductive and it does not do what people expect of it – deter undesirable behavior.

Why is fundamentalism going upwards again when it looked so positive at the start of the “arabic spring”?

The Arab Spring should be an extremely hopeful development. It may spread to oil exporting countries. If it were to spread to Saudi Arabia, this may spur on an immediate renegotiation of oil exports. Note that Iran would become an oil IMPORTER in just a few years, and even Saudi Arabia would be using most of its oil production domestically in less than 20 years. The era of affordable oil is ending, and I see no politician or corporate block respond to this, other than by creating a pervasive apparatus of national and transnational authoritarianism. A pan-arabic block and a sudden increase in oil prices, for whatever reason, would force politicians hands and make them invest heavily in infrastructures of sustainability. Such an infrastructure of “resilience” would greatly mitigate the dystopian misery we will suffer in a few years. Bear in mind – me writing this will almost certainly get me locked up or “disappeared” in a few years. Me making these statements publicly is likely not likely to be smart for the likes of me.

And are u still depressed?

On and off I am. Today is quite good, the last few days have been fairly awful. I have some nice people nearby who make me smile.