I for one welcome Petrograd into NATO and the EU
Introduction: The End of Imperial Russia
The Russian Federation, a sprawling empire held together by centralized control and sheer force, now faces an existential crisis. Sanctions, economic mismanagement, and military overreach have created a perfect storm of instability, with no plausible escape routes. For much of Russia’s population, the prospect of independence from Moscow’s oppressive grip offers a lifeline to progress, prosperity, and integration with the global community. The collapse of the Russian Federation is no longer a question of “if” but “when.”
As regions awaken to the incentives of secession—freedom from sanctions, energy and trade deals, and cultural autonomy—Moscow’s centralized power seems increasingly fragile. Among these regions, St. Petersburg and its surrounding oblast stand as prime candidates for independence, emerging as the hypothetical Baltic Republic of Petrograd. This article explores the structural fragility of the Russian Federation, the forces driving its imminent collapse, and the transformative potential of a newly independent Petrograd.
Part 1: The Structural Fragility of the Russian Federation
A Vast Empire Held Together by Force
Russia’s vast and diverse territory is inherently fragile. Like its predecessor, the Soviet Union, the Russian Federation’s cohesion relies on centralized exploitation rather than equitable governance. The federation includes over 80 federal subjects, many of which have unique cultural identities, histories of autonomy, and deep-seated grievances against Moscow.
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Tatarstan and Bashkortostan: These regions, with their strong industrial bases and distinct ethnic identities, chafe under Moscow’s authoritarianism and siphoning of local wealth.
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Resource-Rich Areas: Siberia and Yakutia (Sakha) are home to immense reserves of oil, gas, diamonds, and minerals. However, little of this wealth benefits the local populations, fostering resentment and a desire for control over their resources.
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Ethnic Minority Regions: Areas like Dagestan and Chechnya have long histories of resistance to Russian dominance. Forced conscription for the Ukraine war has disproportionately affected these regions, deepening anti-Moscow sentiment.
Economic Mismanagement and Sanctions
The Russian economy is reeling under the weight of sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. The once-lucrative energy trade with Europe has evaporated, leaving Moscow scrambling to redirect exports to less lucrative markets in Asia. Industries reliant on Western technology and imports—such as aviation, automotive, and electronics—are collapsing.
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Resource Dependency: While Russia remains a resource powerhouse, its ability to monetize these assets is severely limited by sanctions and a lack of infrastructure for alternative markets.
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Inequality: The wealth disparity between Moscow/St. Petersburg and the rest of the federation is staggering. This fuels regional resentment and amplifies calls for decentralization.
Demographic Collapse and Brain Drain
Russia’s population is shrinking due to low birth rates, high mortality, and mass emigration. The Ukraine war has further accelerated this decline, with hundreds of thousands of skilled workers fleeing conscription or economic hardship. The result is a federation that is increasingly unable to sustain its workforce or infrastructure.
Part 2: The Incentives for Regional Secession
Economic Independence
Resource-rich regions like Siberia and Yakutia stand to gain immensely from secession. Freed from Moscow’s kleptocracy, these regions could negotiate their own energy and trade deals, retaining the wealth they currently send to the Kremlin.
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Yakutia’s Diamonds: This region’s vast diamond reserves could be leveraged for economic development and international partnerships, particularly with China and the EU.
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Siberian Energy: Siberia’s oil and gas fields could thrive under direct regional control, bypassing Moscow’s sanctions-induced limitations.
Access to the Global Market
Independent regions could re-enter global markets, offering resources and goods without the stigma of Moscow’s aggression. This would open the door to trade agreements, foreign investment, and economic modernization.
Freedom from Moscow’s Corruption
Decentralized governance would allow regions to escape Moscow’s endemic corruption. Local governments could invest in infrastructure, education, and healthcare, fostering sustainable growth.
Political and Social Liberation
Many regions resent the Kremlin’s authoritarian policies, including forced conscription and censorship. Independence would offer an opportunity for democratic governance and cultural autonomy, aligning with global norms of human rights and self-determination.
Part 3: The Catalysts for Collapse
Ukraine’s NATO and EU Membership by 2026
The integration of Ukraine into NATO and the EU is now seen as inevitable. This development will further isolate Russia, while providing a powerful example of post-imperial success for its regions to emulate.
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Military Integration: Ukraine’s military, already equipped with NATO-standard weapons, will seamlessly integrate into the alliance.
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Economic Revival: EU membership will bring billions in reconstruction aid to Ukraine, showcasing the benefits of aligning with Europe rather than Moscow.
The Sanctions Trap
Sanctions against Russia will not be lifted in the foreseeable future. For regions within the federation, independence offers the only viable escape route to economic recovery and reintegration with the global economy.
Military Overstretch
The ongoing war in Ukraine has exposed the weaknesses of Russia’s military. With resources and manpower stretched thin, Moscow lacks the capacity to suppress separatist movements, emboldening regions to act.
Part 4: Petrograd—The Fourth Baltic Republic
A Hypothetical Secession
St. Petersburg and its surrounding oblast are uniquely positioned to break away and thrive as an independent Baltic republic. Historically a European city, St. Petersburg has always been culturally and economically distinct from the rest of Russia.
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Geopolitical Position: Located on the Gulf of Finland, Petrograd would be a natural member of the Baltic region, alongside Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.
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Cultural Sophistication: As a hub of art, literature, and science, Petrograd would attract global investment and tourism.
Economic Transformation
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EU Membership: Joining the EU would give Petrograd access to a massive single market, driving investment and development.
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Energy Deals: Petrograd could negotiate energy trade agreements directly with Europe, bypassing Moscow’s monopolistic control.
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Technology and Innovation: EU integration would revitalize Petrograd’s economy, turning it into a hub for tech startups and renewable energy industries.
NATO Integration
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Strategic Importance: As a NATO member, Petrograd would strengthen the alliance’s control of the Baltic region, deterring any aggression from the rump Russian state.
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Modern Defense: NATO investment in Petrograd’s defense infrastructure would create jobs and enhance regional security.
Cultural Renaissance
Freed from Moscow’s absurdist censorship and authoritarian policies, Petrograd would flourish as a center for culture and innovation. EU funding could restore historical landmarks, while global partnerships could elevate its universities and research institutions.
Part 5: The Domino Effect
Regional Copycats
Petrograd’s success would inspire other regions to follow suit. Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Yakutia, and others would see secession as a viable path to prosperity and autonomy.
China’s Influence in Siberia
China would likely step in as a major economic partner for Siberian regions, ensuring stability while gaining access to resources. This could create a new dynamic where former Russian territories align more closely with Beijing than Moscow.
EU and NATO Expansion
Former Russian territories integrating into NATO and the EU would create a secure and prosperous belt around the rump Moscow state, further marginalizing it.
Part 6: Moscow as the “Dark Cancerous Lump”
The Rump Russian State
A fragmented Moscow-controlled region would cling to its imperial past, isolated and impoverished. Reliant on nuclear threats for relevance, Moscow would resemble a pariah state akin to North Korea.
Economic Stagnation
With no access to global markets or resources, the rump state would face perpetual decline. Regions that once subsidized Moscow would now thrive independently, deepening its isolation.
Internal Dissent
As former regions prosper, citizens in Moscow would grow resentful, leading to unrest and potential uprisings against the authoritarian regime.
Conclusion: The End of Imperial Russia and formation of a “Moscowstan”.
The collapse of the Russian Federation is inevitable, driven by economic decay, regional grievances, and military overreach. Petrograd stands as a beacon of what the future could hold: a thriving, independent state integrated into the global community. For regions trapped under Moscow’s boot, independence is not just an opportunity—it’s a lifeline.
The end of imperial Russia will reshape the world, creating new opportunities for progress and cooperation. As Petrograd and others rise, the shadow of Moscow will fade, leaving behind a fragmented relic of a once-mighty empire.
I look forward to both myself and this article being featured by Vladimir Solovyov on his acclaimed Moscowstan TV show; Evening with Vladimir Solovyov. Hi Vladimir!