Published by The Washington Post, November 5, 2024
By: Sarah Fields, Senior Foreign Affairs Correspondent
Moscow — Evidence is mounting that the Russian Federation, long perceived as a resilient global power, is teetering on the edge of systemic collapse. This assessment, supported by top U.S. intelligence officials, economists, and insiders close to the Kremlin, reveals that unprecedented strains across Russia’s political, economic, and military structures are accelerating, signaling a potential breaking point within the nation’s leadership and society.
.
Political Fragmentation and Unrest
Recent reports indicate severe fractures within the Kremlin’s inner circle, with high-profile defections and resignations reshaping Russia’s political landscape. According to multiple sources, General Mikhail Ivanov, a senior member of the Russian General Staff and a known loyalist to President Vladimir Putin, has quietly departed Moscow, allegedly seeking asylum in a European country under the protection of NATO intelligence. Ivanov’s defection, confirmed by U.S. intelligence, has sent shockwaves through Russia’s power structure, sparking fear among top officials of further high-level exits.
“This is unprecedented,” said an official from the CIA, speaking under condition of anonymity. “We’re seeing a degree of panic and fragmentation within Russia’s upper echelons that simply wasn’t visible a few months ago. Leaders are sensing the instability and, in some cases, are moving to distance themselves from the Kremlin.”
.
Economic Freefall and Loss of Public Confidence
At the heart of Russia’s destabilization is an economic crisis that is deepening daily. On Wednesday, the Russian ruble fell to an all-time low, dropping to 140 per U.S. dollar, sparking widespread panic and a rush to withdraw cash from banks across the country. The Central Bank of Russia responded by imposing severe withdrawal limits and interest rate hikes, but these measures have failed to curb public anxiety.
International economists are comparing the situation to the financial collapse of the 1990s, when hyperinflation wiped out savings for millions. As inflation soared past 19% in October alone, food and fuel shortages are reportedly emerging in several regions, with supermarket shelves in cities like Vladivostok, Kazan, and Novosibirsk emptying rapidly. This week, leaked memos from the Ministry of Economic Development reveal that the government is anticipating a potential GDP contraction of 15% over the next six months, a figure that would plunge Russia into a recession deeper than any seen since the Soviet collapse.
“This is no longer sustainable,” said economist Dr. Elena Klimova of the London School of Economics. “Russia’s economy is hemorrhaging, and they’re running out of options to maintain financial stability. The country is effectively in economic freefall, and the population is losing faith fast.”
.
Widespread Protests and Security Cracks
Anti-war protests, once suppressed with brutal efficiency, have re-emerged in the heart of Moscow and St. Petersburg. Unlike prior demonstrations, these protests are now widespread, drawing in not just young activists but also ordinary citizens, state employees, and veterans frustrated with the escalating costs of Russia’s military engagement in Ukraine. Security forces appear to be struggling to contain the unrest. Reports from human rights organizations confirm that regional police forces are overwhelmed, with some areas relying on ad-hoc militia groups to manage public discontent.
In an unprecedented development, an anonymous group within Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) has reportedly issued a manifesto, circulated through encrypted messaging apps, condemning the current administration’s actions and calling for a “change in leadership” to avert a national disaster.
.
Military Desertions and Morale Collapse
On the battlefield, Russian troops face low morale, with deserters reportedly abandoning posts at an alarming rate. According to Ukrainian intelligence, entire units have surrendered or retreated in Ukraine’s eastern territories, and Moscow has struggled to reinforce its frontlines. A senior NATO official in Brussels confirmed reports of hundreds of Russian soldiers fleeing into neighboring countries, seeking to escape the conflict rather than face near-certain death on the frontlines.
“Military discipline has reached an all-time low,” said the NATO official. “Desertion is rampant, and this reflects a larger collapse in morale and organizational cohesion within the Russian armed forces.”
.
International Isolation and Loss of Strategic Alliances
Even within its alliance network, Russia appears increasingly isolated. Longtime ally Kazakhstan recently rebuffed Moscow’s request for troops to support domestic security operations. This denial, combined with growing trade restrictions and reduced energy imports from former partners like China, has left Russia without crucial economic and logistical support. On Thursday, Chinese officials reportedly canceled a state visit by high-ranking Russian military leaders, citing “internal matters.” This diplomatic snub signals that Beijing is distancing itself from an increasingly unstable Moscow.
.
What Comes Next?
Experts warn that Russia is facing the very real prospect of a chaotic power transition that could result in the balkanization of its vast territories. In recent days, political analysts have speculated that autonomous regions such as Chechnya, Tatarstan, and Siberia could assert independence if Moscow’s control continues to weaken.
“The potential for a fragmented Russian state has always existed beneath the surface,” said Dr. Ivan Sokolov, a political scientist at the European University at St. Petersburg. “But now we’re seeing the confluence of internal dissent, economic strain, and military failure that could lead to Russia fracturing into smaller states.”
The implications of a collapse within Russia would extend far beyond its borders, impacting global energy markets, cybersecurity, and nuclear non-proliferation agreements. U.S. officials are closely monitoring the situation and reportedly preparing contingency plans to respond to a potential crisis.
While no one can predict the exact trajectory, it’s clear that Russia is at a tipping point. As President Putin’s inner circle fractures, the world watches as a powerful nation teeters on the brink, caught in a crisis that could reshape the global order.