PLAN CARBON REDUX

Posted on by Khannea Sun'Tzu

In the year

2011

I wrote this article. It is pure blasphemy.

Introduction: The Greenhouse Gambit

In 2011, I posited a thought crime—a forbidden scenario in which a state, most logically Russia, would abandon climate cooperation and instead weaponize carbon emissions for strategic gain. I dared to ask: What if a nation found profit in global ecocide? What if it accelerated the Anthropocene because collapse is comparative advantage?

Fourteen years later, this scenario is no longer radical. It is becoming inevitable.

The world has warmed past 1.6°C. The Paris Agreement is a necromantic pact—animated but lifeless. Climate summits are high-status cosplay, performed while tundra burns and coral bleaches. And somewhere in the shadows of the Kremlin, or beneath the permafrost bunkers of Yakutia, someone has run the simulations:

“The more the world suffers, the better our hand gets. So why not… go all in?”

The Strategic Logic of Accelerated Collapse

Let’s walk through it clinically:

1. Geography Becomes Favorable
Climate change devastates equatorial regions. Agricultural belts shift north. Canada and Russia gain millions of hectares of arable land. The Northern Sea Route opens for year-round navigation. Former wastelands become prime real estate.

2. Resource Extraction Becomes Profitable
Permafrost melts reveal rare earths, lithium, fossil fuels. While the West debates windmills and virtue tokens, HKC (Hypothetical Kitty Country) floods the market with gas and heavy metals. LNG exports rise. Sanctions can’t stop geology.

3. Climate Refugees Destabilize Rivals
Nations in the Global South collapse. Europe floods with migrants. The US becomes a fortress of civil strife. HKC watches as others implode, all while fortifying borders and militarizing its warming wilderness.

4. Global Governance Implodes
The UN is ignored. WTO rules are shredded. Climate treaties become optional. Green tech patents are hoarded or sabotaged. Diplomacy is replaced with blackmail: “Give us access—or we open ten more methane wells.”

Enter the Carbonization Doctrine

“We owe the world nothing. Your suffering is not our problem. We will not be poor so you can feel righteous.”

This Doctrine isn’t just climate nihilism—it is reverse ESG. It’s a sovereign state playing the villain because it pays.

CD constructs the first openly climate-destructive economy:

  • Factories designed to emit high-GWP gases (SF₆, NF₃, CFC-13)

  • Export credits tied to emissions intensity

  • A new Petrostate ESG index: Emissions, Sovereignty, Growth

  • Climate derivatives markets: “Buy the warming, short the Earth”

They adopt a new slogan:

“In the end, the warmest country wins.”

Moral Erosion of the Global Community

At first, the world condemns. Then it negotiates. How do you negotiate with a nuclear armed nation? Then it adapts. Corporations pivot. Hedge funds relocate. Nations begin to imitate the strategy covertly.

Within a decade:

  • Carbon markets collapse.

  • Climate protests turn nihilist or hyper-radical.

  • Some states start counter-geoengineering to cool their regions while letting others burn.

The Anthropocene becomes a zero-sum battlefield.

The Endgame: Necroprofit

There is no final confrontation. No apocalypse. Just… differential collapse. Some drown. Some burn. Some riot. HKC consolidates power, wealth, and survivable climate zones. By 2040, they declare:

“We told you. We planned for this. We built Our Ark while you sang hymns to Greta.”

Closing Remarks: The New Climate Realpolitik

This is not a prediction. It is a temptation—the dark offer at the edge of a dying age.

The Kitty Doctrine is a vision of hyperrational evil. It asks not “What is right?” but “What works?”

And in 2025, with institutions fraying, warming accelerating, and AI-enhanced resource modeling, the cold calculus becomes seductive.

We must assume that someone, somewhere, already believes this. Already runs the numbers. Already builds factories where no one can see.

If the world doesn’t plan for this doctrine, it will wake up inside it.

“In the game of extinction, Kitty plays to win.”

 

Addendum – Analysis

Strategic Coherence

The logic is cold, but disturbingly sound. It exploits the core asymmetry of climate change:

  • Those who caused it suffer last.

  • Those who didn’t cause it suffer first.

  • Those with permafrost may gain.

This turns the climate crisis into a classic Prisoner’s Dilemma with no trust and no central authority. It rewards the first defector—especially if that defector already has a low global trust score and few incentives to play nice.

From a realpolitik perspective, this doctrine aligns with long-term national interest as framed by survival, sovereignty, and leverage.

Example Parallel:
The USSR during the Cold War accepted decades of stagnation in exchange for deterrence supremacy. The Kitty Doctrine echoes that mindset—we will all suffer, but we will suffer last and rule the ashes.

2. Economic and Technological Feasibility

Deliberate climate sabotage is no longer science fiction.

  • SF₆ (sulfur hexafluoride) has 23,500x the warming potential of CO₂.

  • CFCs are banned—but not hard to manufacture covertly.

  • Methane venting can be incentivized through poorly regulated gas production.

  • Nitrogen trifluoride (NF₃) is used in semiconductor fabs and has a GWP of 17,000.

A rogue state could build covert emission farms for:

  • Geopolitical blackmail

  • Economic leverage

  • Speculative futures markets

This is techno-enabled ecocide arbitrage. You don’t even need public industry. You need deniable contracts, lax regulation, and the audacity to pull the trigger.

3. Psychopolitical Climate

The Carbonization Doctrine thrives in a world where:

  • Multilateralism is dying

  • Populism is rising

  • Media fatigue has desensitized publics to catastrophe

  • AI accelerates modeling of profitable collapses

  • Dystopia is a vibe, not a threat

In this environment, moral suasion loses. Victimhood fatigue sets in. The Doctrine is narratively compelling for authoritarian regimes because it flips the climate discourse:
“We’re not criminals. We’re survivors. You moralized us into starvation. Now we moralize back—with heat.”

It is a doctrine of climate revenge masquerading as sovereign rights.

4. Global System Vulnerability

The international community has no existing framework to counter this.

  • Climate treaties are voluntary and toothless.

  • Trade sanctions are leaky and often counterproductive.

  • Military intervention is unthinkable (for now).

  • Surveillance infrastructure isn’t aimed at climate sabotage.

The world is fundamentally unprepared for deliberate climate terrorism at scale. This doctrine exploits not just physical vulnerabilities—but moral blind spots.

5. Historical Analogs

There are precedents:

  • Scorched Earth retreats by Russia and Germany in WWII.

  • Nuclear deterrence as “Mutually Assured Destruction.”

  • Opium wars and narcopolitics—profit from slow societal collapse.

  • The Mongol invasion—total war leveraged as civilization reset.

Kitty Doctrine doesn’t invent evil. It refines it for the climate era.

Final Assessment:

The Carbonization Doctrine is an evolutionary leap in power projection during collapse. It’s an act of asymmetric climatic warfare that asks: if collapse is inevitable, why not accelerate and control it? Its brilliance lies in the inversion of morality. Its danger lies in its plausibility. The more the world delays meaningful action, the more likely someone—a state, a cartel, a billionaire enclave—will adopt a variant of this logic. And when they do, they won’t call it the Carbonization Doctrine.

They’ll call it “energy independence.”
They’ll call it “food security.”
They’ll call it “resilience.”

And the world won’t stop them until it’s far too late.

ORBITAL SHIELDING: THE LAST GOD-TOOL

I. What Is It?

A large-scale array of spaceborne reflectors, diffusers, or refractive structures designed to block or redirect a fraction of incoming solar radiation (insolation), to cool Earth.

  • L1 sunshade at Earth-Sun Lagrange point.

  • Swarms of small lenses, each redirecting a sliver of sunlight.

  • Mirror clouds in high Earth orbit (or even geosynchronous rings).

  • Potential hybrid systems with AI-managed orientation.

Goal: Reduce incoming solar radiation by 0.1%–2%, equating to ~1–3°C of global average temperature offset.

II. Why It’s the Only Credible Response

1. Immediate and Global

Unlike SO₂ aerosols, orbital shading:

  • Acts instantly (no lag in tropospheric diffusion)

  • Covers the whole planet equally

  • Is not dependent on stratospheric weather, altitude, or geopolitics

2. Scalable and Reversible

You can:

  • Adjust angle, coverage, or albedo dynamically

  • Deorbit or reposition elements if unintended side effects emerge

  • Deploy incrementally (even 0.1% shading has an effect)

3. Militarily Safe

No single state’s airspace is violated.
No fallout or precipitation manipulation.
Lower chance of being interpreted as an act of war compared to SO₂ spraying over someone else’s territory.

4. Immune to Veto

A coalition of tech-capable states—or even one transnational AI-aligned agency—could build this with zero permission. It renders Kitty Doctrine’s emissions… strategically obsolete.

III. Technological Feasibility

As of 2025, no such system exists—but it is theoretically buildable using:

  • Mass-limited swarms of ultralight materials (e.g., Mylar, graphene, aerogels, optical metamaterials)

  • Autonomous positioning systems

  • In-space manufacturing (O’Neill-like systems, asteroid feedstock)

  • Launch economies driven by SpaceX, Blue Origin, and Chinese lift systems

A megaproject like OSRM-01 could begin meaningful shading at a price tag of $1T over 10 years, especially with asteroid-sourced mass or lunar fab capability.

IV. Risks and Objections

Let’s not shy away from the terror:

  • Governance nightmare: Who controls it? Who decides “optimal temperature”? What if climate justice demands warming somewhere else? What if those who control these shade decide to punitively redirect solar heating to above Carbon Doctrine nations, turning that region into a sweltering desert?

  • Moral hazard: With orbital shade, polluters have even less incentive to decarbonize.

  • Weaponization: Control over Earth’s light budget could be twisted for geopolitical pressure.

  • Technological lock-in: Once deployed, removing it may trigger a catastrophic termination shock of rapid warming.

Also, Kitty Doctrine nations may respond by sabotaging launch pads, hacking orbital controls, or accelerating GHG release to offset the offset.

V. Political and Narrative Counterattack

The true brilliance of orbital shading isn’t just thermodynamic. It’s symbolic:

  • It renders carbon blackmail irrelevant.

  • It reverses climate fatalism.

  • It reframes humanity as planetary stewards—wielding godlike tools with the stakes of myth.

It declares: We see your methane bombs and raise you a Dyson veil.

VI. Conclusion: The Firewall Doctrine

If Carbonization Doctrine is a deliberate plunge into collapse for gain, then orbital solar radiation management is the planetary firewall—the only tool of scale, speed, and sovereignty-neutrality that can block it.

But it comes with Faustian tradeoffs:

  • Who builds it?

  • Who rules it?

  • Who pays?

  • And what comes after the sun returns?

You want a dark and epic sequel chapter?

Let’s write it.

“The Firewall Doctrine: Building the Ark in Orbit.”

You know the tagline already:
“Not in heaven. Not underground. Not beneath the sea. But in shadow between us and the sun.”