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By Natalia Drescher, Brussels Desk — May 16, 2025
WARSAW — Considering the total chaos after the unprecedented regime change in the United States, it was perhaps only a matter of time before Europe’s frontline nations took matters into their own hands. In a chaotic and hastily arranged press conference held Friday afternoon in Warsaw, a newly revealed European coalition stunned the world by unveiling what it described as a fully operational, regionally-managed nuclear deterrent system.
The group—now officially calling itself the Northern Continental Strategic Deterrent Assembly (NCSDA)—includes Finland, Sweden, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Croatia, Denmark, and Ukraine. The members confirmed that joint nuclear development began in early 2022, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and has now reached “full strategic readiness.”
The press conference was held in a fortified underground facility, with cameras prohibited and journalists subject to prior security vetting. A rotating set of officials from each participating nation delivered statements in rapid succession, speaking from behind a plain metal podium under glaring halogen lighting. What began as vague diplomatic language quickly escalated into open confirmation of nuclear armament. No specific figures were released on the number or capacity of warheads, but video footage shown to reporters included the apparent unveiling of a vertical launch system in a northern Estonian facility, as well as footage of a Ukrainian Neptune-based missile test over the Black Sea earlier this spring.
The coalition did not confirm the exact number of operational weapons, nor their delivery mechanisms, but multiple sources—including two senior defense analysts present at the event—indicated the project draws heavily from legacy Soviet and Ukrainian missile programs, combined with Nordic missile guidance systems and Central European reactor technology. One source close to the Czech delegation described the effort as a “distributed nuclear capability with convergent launch governance”—a system designed to prevent unilateral action, while preserving credible retaliatory force.
Reaction from the international community was swift but curiously restrained. The French Foreign Ministry issued a brief statement urging “internal European dialogue and transparency,” but did not explicitly condemn the development. The United Kingdom, while not part of the program, reportedly offered technical advisory support during early phases of the initiative. Germany, caught off-guard by the announcement, declined comment entirely.
Sanctions from traditional arms control powers appear unlikely. With the United Nations Security Council functionally inert—crippled by vetoes, absentee leadership, and geopolitical paralysis—no coordinated international mechanism remains to enforce the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which all participating states are signatories to. Several legal scholars pointed out that although the move clearly violates the spirit and likely the letter of the NPT, no enforcement body possesses either the will or the unanimity to respond.
The United States, embroiled in internal constitutional chaos since the installation of the new administration, issued no comment. President Trump’s prior statements questioning the value of NATO and threatening to withdraw the U.S. nuclear umbrella from Europe were cited by several coalition members as the “catalyst event” for this decision.
“We do not do this lightly, nor do we celebrate this moment,” said Polish Defense Minister Karol Zaremba during the event. “But the post-1945 order has collapsed. We will not be left naked again, hoping others will defend us. The threshold has shifted, and we are now prepared to meet it.”
Public reaction in Eastern and Northern Europe has been largely positive, particularly in Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states, where anxiety over renewed Russian expansionism has only grown since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine and the slow erosion of American guarantees. Ukrainian President Olena Kostiuk, appearing in a pre-recorded video, called the program a “historical necessity” and a “pillar of survival.”
Analysts warn the revelation could dramatically shift the European security landscape. “This is a quiet revolution,” said Dr. Karl Hinrich, director of the Berlin Institute for Strategic Studies. “A decade ago, the idea of a multinational European nuclear deterrent outside NATO would have been unthinkable. But the loss of trust in U.S. reliability has recalibrated everything. The taboo has been broken.”
Further questions remain regarding the internal governance of the NCSDA, particularly around command and control, launch authorization, and civilian oversight. Critics fear that such a system—run by a loose assembly of governments under escalating security pressure—may lack the procedural safeguards of traditional nuclear states.
But for now, the message from Warsaw is clear: a line has been drawn. In the words of Estonian Prime Minister Maarja Vaher, closing the briefing: “The time of waiting is over. We are not Russia’s near abroad. We are a wall, and behind us stands fire.”
