This is all speculative – but frankly, not unreasonable.
Week 1 (Nov 1–7, 2025)
The government shutdown deepens; SNAP benefits are suspended. Federal employees and contractors are furloughed or working without pay, creating immediate stress in key sectors. The Federal Reserve quietly begins buying U.S. Treasuries to keep markets afloat, drawing wary commentary from international banks. President Trump’s foreign policy statements escalate tensions in Venezuela and Colombia, while EU partners express concern over erratic U.S. diplomacy. Public protests in major U.S. cities swell into tens of thousands, signaling widening dissatisfaction.
Week 2 (Nov 8–14, 2025)
Treasury auctions struggle to find buyers without Fed intervention. Yields spike on long-term debt, shaking confidence in U.S. creditworthiness. Reports emerge of growing discontent among U.S. military officers over Trump’s chaotic orders in Latin America, though no direct mutiny occurs. Stock markets wobble; U.S. oligarchs’ portfolios lose 15–20% of paper value in volatile trading. NATO allies begin quiet contingency planning for potential U.S. instability.
Week 3 (Nov 15–21, 2025)
The first national strike waves hit transport and municipal workers; air traffic delays spike. Congress remains deadlocked, unable to pass even temporary funding measures. Banks issue internal warnings about liquidity risks. Trump doubles down on rhetoric targeting Cuba, Venezuela, and Colombia, suggesting potential “boots on the ground” operations, alarming international partners. Social unrest spreads from urban centers to midwestern towns, with growing anti-administration sentiment.
Week 4 (Nov 22–28, 2025)
Markets plunge further; the S&P 500 loses 8% over the week. Major U.S. banks announce frozen lending lines for commercial clients due to debt uncertainty. Intelligence assessments suggest that certain senior military leaders are contemplating contingency measures to prevent accidental escalation abroad. International partners urge restraint; Japan suspends high-level diplomatic visits until the situation stabilizes. Domestic protests now include organized unions coordinating cross-sector slowdowns.
Week 5 (Nov 29–Dec 5, 2025)
Treasury yield curve inversion worsens, fueling recession fears. Federal Reserve balance sheet surpasses $12 trillion as it buys up distressed debt. Reports circulate that parts of the U.S. military are refusing to follow provocative Latin American orders, citing legality concerns. Trump attempts to issue public reassurances, but incoherence and slurred public appearances reduce credibility. EU and G7 finance ministers hold emergency calls to discuss U.S. debt exposure.
Week 6 (Dec 6–12, 2025)
Debt refinancing reaches a critical juncture; Treasury must roll over $1.5 trillion in maturing bonds with Fed backing. Market panic triggers a partial dollar sell-off, with euro and yen strengthening sharply. Internal White House communications leak, revealing friction between Trump, advisors, and Pentagon leadership. Public demonstrations now exceed 1 million cumulatively across cities. U.S. allies quietly prepare contingency economic support for sectors affected by potential default or crash.
Week 7 (Dec 13–19, 2025)
Food and transportation sectors show signs of disruption, compounding public anger. SNAP recipients remain cut off, causing humanitarian pressure and media scrutiny. Trump issues aggressive Twitter statements toward Venezuela, causing oil prices to spike. Fed warns that continued deficit growth and bond monetization could trigger hyperinflation by 2026 if unaddressed. International credit agencies downgrade U.S. sovereign debt further.
Week 8 (Dec 20–26, 2025)
Congress continues stalemate; some GOP senators begin privately signaling concern over Trump’s leadership. Military command holds quiet high-level meetings to ensure operational continuity in case of political instability. Wall Street experiences margin calls and forced liquidations among leveraged U.S. oligarch portfolios. Protests in urban centers combine with strike actions in transport, energy, and public services. China and EU issue cautionary statements about dollar reliance.
Week 9 (Dec 27, 2025 – Jan 2, 2026)
Debt ceiling debates loom; Trump escalates threats of executive orders on domestic economic management. Fed continues bond purchases aggressively; markets perceive the U.S. as monetizing debt. Reports emerge of private discussions among oligarchs to safeguard assets abroad. Social unrest grows; incidents of violence are reported around federal buildings. NATO partners quietly alert forces to potential disruptions in U.S. military command.
Week 10 (Jan 3–9, 2026)
The debt crisis accelerates: Treasury reports a $3 trillion shortfall in immediate liquidity. Banks begin restricting lending further, triggering fears of credit freeze. Military leadership is increasingly vocal internally about risk of rogue actions. Trump’s attempts to rally support through media are undermined by incoherent appearances. G7 issues statements emphasizing the need for “responsible governance” in the U.S. as a financial partner.
Week 11 (Jan 10–16, 2026)
Domestic unrest escalates into coordinated citywide strikes, targeting utilities and transport hubs. Food supply chains experience significant slowdowns. Federal Reserve interventions have stabilized short-term liquidity but eroded confidence in the dollar. Oligarchic panic peaks; capital flight accelerates. International observers warn that U.S. debt crisis is a systemic global risk.
Week 12 (Jan 17–23, 2026)
Reports indicate partial breakdown in domestic governance: some agencies fail to implement payroll or service functions. Military continues refusing certain international orders; legal and operational disputes mount. Public protests reach record levels. Oil and commodity markets are volatile, exacerbated by Trump’s provocative statements regarding Venezuela and Colombia. European central banks consider contingency swap lines to stabilize global markets.
Week 13 (Jan 24–30, 2026)
Treasury announces emergency debt refinancing plan with Fed assistance. Confidence remains fragile; dollar weakens further. Strike action spreads to federal employees managing critical infrastructure. Trump attempts to deflect blame onto Congress, but credibility is minimal. Private oligarch networks execute accelerated wealth transfers overseas.
Week 14 (Jan 31 – Feb 6, 2026)
International tension peaks as Trump announces new sanctions and military readiness toward Venezuela and Cuba. Pentagon issues formal briefings to Congress highlighting risks of unilateral orders. Banks issue extreme caution notices; derivatives markets are highly sensitive. Protests continue, with sporadic violent incidents.
Week 15 (Feb 7–13, 2026)
Debt and liquidity crises cause interbank lending freezes. Federal shutdown effects ripple into state governments. Trump rallies to shore up support, but military and financial elites quietly coordinate continuity plans. European and Asian observers increasingly treat U.S. as a high-risk partner.
Week 16 (Feb 14–20, 2026)
Partial federal service collapse is reported in key states. Food distribution issues intensify; urban unrest peaks. Fed bond purchases become openly massive, signaling effective monetization. Oligarchs accelerate asset flight. International diplomacy focuses on U.S. crisis containment rather than collaboration.
Week 17 (Feb 21–27, 2026)
Debt ceiling and deficit projections reach critical tipping point; Treasury struggles to meet obligations without Fed support. Domestic protests evolve into semi-coordinated political demands for leadership change. Military readiness for Latin America operations is delayed due to internal legal resistance. Dollar weakness causes global commodities shock.
Week 18 (Feb 28 – Mar 5, 2026)
Markets stabilize temporarily due to Fed intervention, but confidence is shaky. Military leadership continues internal planning to avoid inadvertent escalation abroad. Public unrest remains high; the administration struggles to maintain legitimacy. Banks prepare for systemic stress contagion internationally.
Week 19 (Mar 6–12, 2026)
Trump signals aggressive foreign policy moves toward Latin America; Pentagon pushes back, citing legal and strategic risk. Debt-to-GDP concerns dominate global media. Oligarchs’ portfolio losses approach 50% of nominal value due to market contraction. International partners begin contingency plans to reduce exposure to U.S. assets.
Week 20 (Mar 13–19, 2026)
By mid-March, U.S. domestic governance is highly fragile: partial shutdown persists, SNAP benefits remain suspended, and military coordination is strained. Fed bond purchases continue, but market confidence is low. International partners, including EU, Japan, and NATO, begin formal discussions on hedging against U.S. default or economic collapse. Public unrest and elite dissatisfaction create a palpable environment for potential political change or forced compromise.
Week 21 (Mar 20–26, 2026)
Debt pressures and shutdown effects persist; some federal agencies stop processing visa renewals and work authorizations. Local governments scramble to maintain essential services with limited budgets. Protests continue in major cities, while smaller towns report supply chain disruptions affecting food, gas, and utilities. The Fed continues aggressive bond-buying, though dollar weakness persists internationally. International observers warn companies with foreign employees to prepare for administrative delays.
Week 22 (Mar 27 – Apr 2, 2026)
Banks issue tighter lending restrictions, affecting payroll liquidity for mid-sized and smaller companies. Visa holders on standard work visas face delayed processing and risk of payroll verification issues; studios in red states struggle to assure continuity for critical talent. Ongoing strikes in transport and public services slow deliveries; restaurants and seasonal services cut back sharply. Trump makes aggressive statements on Latin America, further destabilizing oil and commodity markets.
Week 23 (Apr 3–9, 2026)
Treasury signals emergency short-term measures to avoid immediate default, but confidence remains low. Visa-dependent workers see administrative backlogs—some face temporary suspension of employment authorization due to shutdown-related staffing shortages. Market volatility spikes; some U.S. oligarchs accelerate asset liquidation overseas. Military continues internal tension over foreign operations; some units refuse nonessential overseas orders.
Week 24 (Apr 10–16, 2026)
Federal shutdown now affecting multiple domestic regulatory and administrative functions: work visas, tax reporting, and federal loans experience delays. Public unrest continues but begins to shift toward organized, localized mutual aid efforts in urban centers. Banks quietly tighten credit further for companies dependent on imports or exports. International partners issue updated travel advisories and warnings for Americans and foreign nationals working in U.S. red states.
Week 25 (Apr 17–23, 2026)
The U.S. government reaches a fragile compromise to release limited funding for essential agencies; visa processing resumes slowly, but backlogs remain. Companies employing foreign talent—particularly in tech, games, and creative sectors—face payroll uncertainty. Domestic unrest persists in key urban centers, but strikes begin tapering slightly as partial services resume. Markets remain volatile, but Fed support prevents immediate collapse. International attention focuses on U.S. debt trajectory and political stability.