The Inevitable Fall of Russia: The Final Breakdown

Introduction: The War That Broke an Empire

Russia’s war against Ukraine was never just about land. It was an existential gamble that Vladimir Putin made to cement his legacy, crush Ukrainian sovereignty, and reassert Russia as a dominant global power. Instead, it has accelerated the very thing Putin feared most: the fragmentation, collapse, and ultimate irrelevance of Russia as a functional state.

This is not speculation. It is a process already in motion, an unrelenting descent from which there is no escape. Russia, as it has existed for centuries, is finished. The only question left is how long the wreckage will burn—and how far the consequences will spread.

1. The Military Catastrophe: Russia Cannot Win

For years, Russia was feared as the world’s second-most powerful military. The Ukraine war exposed that lie. Corruption, incompetence, and outdated strategies have shattered the Russian military beyond repair.

• Irreplaceable manpower losses. Russia has lost hundreds of thousands of soldiers—killed, wounded, or permanently disabled. The recruits replacing them are prisoners, untrained conscripts, and men forced into service under duress.

• Catastrophic equipment depletion. Russia has burned through decades of stockpiled Soviet weaponry and is now fielding vehicles from the 1960s. Artillery shells are running low, missiles are getting sloppier, and its vaunted tank divisions are becoming obsolete scrap metal.

• Command structure in shambles. Putin’s paranoia has led to constant purges, ensuring that Russia’s generals are selected for loyalty, not competence. There is no long-term strategy—only desperation.

• Defensive collapse imminent. Ukraine’s NATO-trained forces are gaining ground. Each day, Russia’s ability to hold the front weakens. The initiative belongs to Ukraine.

Russia is no longer a military power. It is a failing state clinging to an illusion.

2. The FSB Knows It’s Over

The Kremlin’s intelligence services were once feared as ruthless masters of manipulation. Today, the FSB and GRU are barely keeping Putin’s regime from imploding.

• A fractured deep state. Russia’s security services are riddled with factional infighting. The military hates the FSB. The oligarchs are terrified. Even Putin’s closest circle is filled with potential traitors.

• Suicides and defections rising. Many Russian officials see the writing on the wall. Some flee abroad, others quietly sabotage the war effort, and some choose the last exit—suicide.

• China is preparing to move in. The FSB is fully aware that Beijing is positioning itself to take Siberia the moment Russia collapses further.

• Nuclear deterrence is weaker than it looks. Many of Russia’s strategic weapons are either non-functional, compromised by corruption, or in the hands of officers who may refuse launch orders.

Putin’s inner circle knows that the war cannot be won. The question is when—not if—they turn on him.

3. The Economic Free Fall: No Recovery Possible

Sanctions are permanent. The economy is dying. The Russian state is running on borrowed time.

• The loss of Western technology has crippled industry. Russia relied on foreign parts and expertise to maintain its oil, gas, and military production. That support is gone.

• The brain drain is irreversible. Millions of skilled Russians have fled, taking with them the last remnants of modern technological expertise.

• China is looting Russia’s economy. Beijing is happy to buy Russian oil and minerals—but only at rock-bottom prices. Russia is becoming a Chinese vassal state.

• The ruble is propped up by fraud. The Russian Central Bank has been forced to manipulate currency controls, masking the true depth of economic decay.

There is no path back. The Russian economy is a collapsing husk.

4. Trump’s “White Dove” Peace Deal: A Hollow Victory

By 2025, Russia is desperate for any way out of the war. Putin cannot admit defeat, but neither can he sustain the conflict. Enter Donald Trump, oh gods what am I smelling.

• Trump arrives with the promise of “The Deal of the Century.” He stages the grand spectacle of negotiations, declaring himself the great peacemaker.

• The EU refuses to budge. Europe knows Russia is weak and will not lift sanctions without total Russian capitulation.

• Ukraine plays hardball. Zelensky’s government, with considerable and growing NATO backing, makes clear that Ukraine will not settle for anything less than full territorial integrity and security guarantees. A lot of people in western Europe viciously HATE russia, with the goddamn assassinations, the goddamn blackmail and the goddamn lateral warfare and the election interference and the troll farms – visceral hatred.

• Putin is humiliated. He stalls, postures, and tries to negotiate, but he has no real leverage. For a day or two he tries to maintain the grandiosity he projected decades ago, but all people see is a small clownish old man with a weird face and deep sad eyes.

• Trump grows bored. He unilaterally declares victory, staging a meaningless handshake moment before returning to Golf (his preferred passtime as it allows him to ‘ventilate’ better). But more importantly – Trump CAN’T take part in lengthy negotiations. He knows he is out of his depth – and more importantly; if he’s in a room for more than an hour he starts involuntarily farting, smelling like a sewer. Such a spectacle would do lasting damage to U.S. credibility in European security matters. Conclusion – Trump is only about appearances, can’t actually negotiate in The Real World, with Grownups. 

• European leaders, who were already scandalized with Trump’s erratic behavior in his previous term, could be made to more publically comment on Trump’s odious personal conduct, bizarre outbursts on twitter, complete lack of nuance or geopolitical understanding as definitive proof that they must chart their own course in military affairs. Trump would be unable to dodge massive humiliation if he lingered too long. Imagine someone like Sanna Marin – on camera – throwing up visibly when lingering a moment too long in trump’s presence.

• As a result, the European Union are likely to accelerate plans for defense autonomy, pushing toward deeper military integration and increased funding for their own deterrence. The rift between the U.S. and its European allies grow is almost unavoidable to grow, forcing Europe to take on a leadership role in containing Russia independently of Washington’s political whims. In any negotiations Trump has no recourse than to unilaterally declare victory, staging a meaningless handshake moment before returning to his gold course “where he can air out more unnoticed”.

Putin’s hardliners anticipate a russian defeat as the ultimate disgrace. Oligarchs panic. The military seethes. The countdown to ‘some kind of’ internal revolt accelerates. Worst of all there is absolutely no one to place Putin – those people are all abroad or dead. Only lackeys, sycophants and incompetent morons remain in putins circle. There is no future transfer of power even remotely thinkable for russia.

5. The Final Collapse: France and the EU Take Action

By 2026, the frozen conflict can no longer hold. Europe, seeing its opportunity, forces an endgame. Putin has for some years wanted out, but against better judgement he kept on hoping for a miracle. That miracle has not arrived, and he’s left holding the worst poker hand ever seen in human history. 

• France, Poland, and the Baltics deploy troops independently. NATO does not officially engage, but Europe refuses to allow Ukraine to remain a half-secure buffer state.

• Ukraine considers nuclear options. If the West does not fully secure its future, Ukraine has every incentive to pursue nuclear deterrence—with or without NATO approval. Can you blame ’em? While Ukraine lacks active nuclear weapons, it possesses the scientific expertise, raw materials, and industrial capacity to develop a functional nuclear program relatively quickly. Its previous status as a nuclear-capable state gives it a baseline understanding of weapons development. The key issue would be international response—while Ukraine could likely assemble a nuclear arsenal, the West would strongly discourage it to prevent regional proliferation. However, if left without ironclad security guarantees, Kyiv may consider nuclear deterrence its only viable long-term safeguard. If the West does not fully secure its future, Ukraine has every incentive to pursue nuclear deterrence—with or without NATO approval. However, Ukraine is quite likely to already have had bilateral talks with Poland and the Baltics on this topic. A solo Ukraine with a nuclear deterrant is … troublesome. However a Baltic/Polish/Ukrainian (and possibly other partners sneezeFinlandsneeze) would make Western Europe feel bolstered, maybe even a enthusiastic. 

• Putin faces his worst nightmare: a European coalition moving toward full military engagement. His generals know they cannot win a conventional fight against a modernized European military, whereas European military may be behind in investments but even with that problem they’d go through russian border troops like a flamethrower through butter. 

• Internal fractures explode. Russian ultra-nationalists see Putin as a weakling. Oligarchs start fleeing the country en masse. The FSB and military factions turn on each other in an orgy of defenestrations.

• Putin’s fate is sealed. He is either deposed in a palace coup, flees to exile, or meets a far grimmer fate at the hands of his own people. However, the key question remains: who moves against him? The FSB, once his iron grip on power, has fragmented, with different factions competing for survival. The military, humiliated and overextended, harbors deep resentment, but lacks a unifying leader to coordinate a coup. The oligarchs, terrified of losing everything, may attempt a last-ditch effort to remove Putin if it means salvaging their wealth and access to global markets. The ultra-nationalists, meanwhile, could push for an even more radical and violent successor, further destabilizing Russia. The absence of a clear successor or transition plan means that the moment Putin is gone, Russia’s leadership vacuum could collapse into chaos, leaving the country open to internal power struggles, regional fragmentation, or complete state failure. He is either deposed in a palace coup, flees to exile, or meets a far grimmer fate at the hands of his own people. If putin disappears the whole house of cards *is revealed to be a whole bunch of cards printed on wet toilet paper*.  There IS no one left to directly move “against” Putin. Which means – Russia is virgin territory for ruthless opportunists to stake out a claim somewhere in Siberia while having a giant yacht parked at the French Riviera. In effect – Russia would balkanize into fiefdoms full of warlords and oligarchs almost instantaneously. 

6. The End of Russia as We Know It

When Russia collapses, it will not be a singular event—it will be a process. But it is now a process that is unstoppable.

• Siberia will be quietly absorbed by China. Beijing will step in as a stabilizing force under the guise of economic partnerships. One motivator, especially now that Trump is in the picture, is that YES—Trump is crazy enough to try and grab a bit of Russia over the Bering Strait, with his “real estate mogul accumen and all“. The Chinese should be very paranoid about any such a contingency. While publicly maintaining a neutral stance, China has long viewed Siberia as a strategic resource hub and buffer zone – and China really really really wants to move into the Arctic. With Russia destabilized, Beijing will ensure its dominance in the region, likely through economic control, large-scale infrastructure projects, and ‘security partnerships’ that will increasingly resemble occupation. However, this won’t go unchallenged—Western intelligence agencies will attempt to stoke nationalist resistance within Russia, and Japan may look to counter Chinese expansion in the Pacific region. In fact Japan might in turn be looking to reclaim their northern island chain. The fate of Siberia will be one of the key geopolitical flashpoints of the post-Russia era.  

• Ukraine will become a fully integrated Western fortress. NATO or not, Ukraine will be an impenetrable bulwark against any future Russian aggression. The west has thrown so much money at Ukraine, they’ll want in on the many natural treasures of Ukraine, specifically fertilizer, agricultural land, aluminum, the Black Sea, and access to untapped reserves of oil, natural gas, and pipelines. However, this introduces potential geopolitical friction—while Ukraine desperately needs Western investment to rebuild, it will also seek to maintain sovereignty over its economic assets. The tension between Ukraine’s national interests and Western corporate appetites could lead to disputes over resource extraction, foreign ownership of key industries, and trade policies. If not managed carefully, Ukraine could find itself economically dependent on foreign interests, shifting from one form of geopolitical subjugation to another. The West’s economic stake in Ukraine could either reinforce Ukraine’s position as a strong independent state—or turn it into a battleground for economic exploitation.  Out of the frying pan, into the fire, so to speak.

• Sanctions will never fully lift. The West will maintain economic pressure to ensure that “A Kinder, Gentler New Russian imperial threat’ never emerges. However, a post-Putin Russia with a more cooperative regime might eventually negotiate some relief, though only in exchange for significant concessions—such as reparations to Ukraine, military drawdowns, and permanent renunciations of expansionist policies. Any sanctions relief would be conditional, incremental, and closely monitored to prevent another resurgence of Russian aggression. The West will maintain economic pressure to ensure that a new Russian imperial threat never emerges. The west will actually have no qualms in acting sadistic about bleeding ‘russia’ with sanctions for years to come. 

• Russia’s neighbors will seize the opportunity. Kazakhstan, Georgia, and others will assert more independence, further eroding Moscow’s influence.

• The Russian people will face a grim future. They will be left with a broken country, a shattered identity, and a deep mistrust of their own government. However, history has shown that in the vacuum of failed states, resistance movements, underground reformist factions, and democratic resurgence can emerge. Add a dozen or so ethnic cleansings and you have a recipe for decades of inspiration for horrific shooter games. Russia has no tradition of democracy (or for that matter – competent govcernment) so if the central state fragments into competing fiefdoms the cascade downwards will likely to be pretty dystopian. What is certain is that the collapse of centralized control will create space for both chaos and reinvention—though whether that reinvention takes the form of pockets of democracy or continued authoritarianism (think Turkmenistan – they are NUTS) depends on who fills the void first. The ‘russian’ people will be left with a broken country, a shattered identity, and whoever is left will be ungovnerable for generations. One can be certain that Alcoholism in Russia – after such a major collapse – will be consumed EVEN more. 

Conclusion: The Last Days of a Failed Empire

The fall of Russia is not a question of “if”—it is already happening. The military is broken, the economy is dying, and the political elite is rotting from within. No leader, no amount of propaganda, and no intervention can reverse the tide.

The world is watching the final days of a failed empire.

What comes next is simply a matter of how quickly the pieces fall—and who is left to pick them up.