Context and Problems:
The ongoing war in Ukraine has placed Russia in an increasingly dire strategic position, with every potential course of action resulting in catastrophic consequences. Below, each possible option is examined in light of the complex web of geopolitical, economic, and military realities.
1. Ending the War
- Sanctions remain: Even if Russia ends the war, crippling Western sanctions are unlikely to be lifted without substantial reparations, war crime trials, and Russia withdrawing from occupied territories, including Crimea. The sanctions have already gutted key sectors like energy exports, technology access, and financial systems.
- War crimes accountability: Russia’s leadership faces international extradition demands for war crimes, ensuring that ending the war could directly lead to trials in international courts.
- Loss of leverage: A cessation without achieving objectives would be perceived as a humiliating defeat, weakening Russia’s global standing and emboldening domestic opposition.
- Costs of rebuilding: Rebuilding Ukraine could cost over $1 trillion, and Russia would face demands to pay reparations, plunging its already struggling economy into further decline.
2. Winning the War
Context and Problems:
- Direct NATO involvement: A full-scale victory over Ukraine would likely only come with NATO’s direct entry into the war. NATO’s superior military capabilities would devastate Russian forces, leading to catastrophic losses.
- Unachievable objectives: The Ukrainian resistance, armed with increasingly advanced Western weaponry, has made outright victory virtually impossible without massive escalation, including tactics that would alienate Russia’s few remaining allies.
- Economic collapse: The costs of continued war have bled Russia’s economy dry, with the ruble collapsing and hyperinflation threatening widespread unrest.
- Generational loss: The death toll among Russian men in their prime has created a demographic crisis that cannot sustain prolonged warfare or post-war rebuilding.
3. Endlessly Continuing the War Against Ukraine
Context and Problems:
- Degenerating arms shipments: Ukraine continues to receive more advanced weapons, from long-range missiles to F-16 fighter jets, widening the technological gap and eroding Russian military capabilities.
- Sanctions fatigue: While Western countries remain steadfast, Russia’s economy is suffering from a combination of sanctions and reduced energy revenues. Prolonged war exacerbates these issues, with reserves dwindling.
- Draft evasion: Millions of Russians have fled to avoid conscription, further depleting military manpower and the domestic labor force, amplifying long-term economic damage.
- Internal dissent: Endless war fuels dissent among Russian citizens, potentially destabilizing Putin’s regime.
4. Ukraine Becoming a NATO Member
Context and Problems:
- Article 5: NATO membership would guarantee Ukraine’s defense under Article 5, making any further aggression against Ukraine a declaration of war against the entire alliance.
- Geostrategic isolation: Ukraine’s NATO membership would solidify Russia’s exclusion from Europe and entrench NATO forces along Russia’s western borders.
- Loss of prestige: This scenario would underscore Russia’s inability to stop NATO expansion, a key goal of its foreign policy since the Cold War.
5. Russia Using Nuclear Weapons in Ukraine
Context and Problems:
- Global response: Nuclear use would trigger unprecedented sanctions, military responses from NATO, and complete diplomatic isolation, even from countries like China and India.
- Risk of escalation: Using nuclear weapons risks direct retaliation, including conventional or nuclear strikes, spiraling into global conflict.
- Domino effect: It could provoke other nuclear-armed states (e.g., North Korea) to act recklessly, destabilizing global security frameworks.
6. Actually Claiming Large Parts of 1991 Ukraine Territory
Context and Problems:
- Occupation costs: Controlling a hostile population in territories like Kyiv or Lviv would require enormous military resources, which Russia does not possess.
- Global sanctions regime: Such a move would make Russia a permanent pariah, with a sanctions regime akin to North Korea’s, isolating it economically and politically.
- Internal unrest: The prolonged costs and sacrifices of holding these territories would trigger unrest among Russian citizens.
7. A Korea Division and a Militarized Hard Border Inside Ukraine
Context and Problems:
- UN peacekeepers: Any international peacekeeping force would likely align with Ukraine’s interests, limiting Russian influence over the divided territory.
- Prolonged hostility: A hard border would keep Ukraine militarized and hostile, with NATO and Western support ensuring Ukraine remains a potent threat.
- Economic drain: Maintaining a militarized border would bleed Russia economically and militarily for decades, as seen with North Korea.
8. Abandoning Kursk
Context and Problems:
- Strategic retreat: Losing Kursk would represent a direct blow to Russia’s territorial integrity, emboldening separatist movements and undermining domestic unity.
- Perceived weakness: Abandoning such a significant region would be interpreted as a sign of internal collapse, weakening Putin’s grip on power.
9. Attempting to Re-conquer Kursk
Context and Problems:
- Military overreach: Attempting to retake Kursk would likely overstretch Russia’s already exhausted military, leading to more humiliating defeats.
- Domestic instability: The costs of such a campaign would deepen domestic discontent, risking unrest or even regime change.
10. Continuing with Petty Sabotages in Western Countries
Context and Problems:
- Counterintelligence backlash: Western countries are increasingly investing in cybersecurity, counterintelligence, and infrastructure protection. Petty sabotage operations risk exposing Russian operatives, networks, and methodologies, leading to mass expulsions of intelligence agents and dismantling of covert influence operations.
- Escalating sanctions: Continued sabotage efforts could provoke additional sanctions, targeting individuals, corporations, and entire sectors critical to Russia’s economy.
- Alienating neutral actors: Petty attacks could alienate nations that have maintained neutrality or limited criticism of Russia, such as parts of the Global South, further isolating Russia diplomatically.
- Unity among Western nations: Sabotage attempts often backfire by strengthening alliances between Western nations, reinforcing NATO cohesion and solidarity.
- Tit-for-tat escalation: Western intelligence agencies could retaliate, ramping up their own covert operations against Russian assets and infrastructure, further destabilizing Russia domestically.
Broader Impact:
Sabotage operations are not likely to tilt the balance in Russia’s favor but will instead reinforce the narrative of Russia as a rogue state. Petty sabotage might provide fleeting propaganda victories but worsens long-term prospects for détente or negotiation.
Additional Factors
- China’s response: As Russia weakens, China may seek to exploit its vulnerabilities economically or territorially, particularly in resource-rich Siberia.
- Generational damage: The war has already devastated an entire generation of Russian men, creating a demographic and labor crisis that will cripple long-term growth.
- Hyperinflation: The ruble’s collapse and sanctions-induced economic isolation have eroded public confidence in the Russian state, making sustained conflict untenable.
What Exactly Is Russia’s End Goal?
Given the catastrophic outcomes of every option, the question remains: What is Russia’s actual end goal? With no viable path to victory, peace, or even prolonged war without catastrophic costs, it appears that Russia is trapped in a strategic checkmate of its own making. Is survival, both for Putin’s regime and Russia as a state, the only achievable goal left? Or is the current trajectory a reckless gamble with no clear resolution?
Should we then ask: why does Putin’s inner circle continue to support his regime? Why hasn’t anyone acted to remove him and start the arduous journey toward normalization? It’s clear this catastrophe will only spiral further into chaos. While Putin’s grip on power is undeniably tight, those closest to him must realize the immense long-term harm he is inflicting—not only on Ukraine, often referred to as a “brotherly nation,” but also on Russia itself. His actions are driving the country toward a bleak, dystopian future, crippled economically, diplomatically, and demographically, with little hope of recovery.
In fact – with my best ability I can only see Putin’s action only in the light of self-aggrandizement and self-preservation. To Putin the death of half a million of his fellow Russians is less important than him surviving and living the good life a few more years. Not even his ‘reputation’ is served by his choices – his historical significance and legacy is now all but a joke.
People around him should internalize this realization.