This is a guesstimate for being an active observer of life extension of what, I believe, we can anticipate. The following list is intended to make you think about the various levels of aging reversal treatments. These are all sign points for some future date where we can, at that moment (or in retrospect later on) decide “see, here is where we made significant progress”. My question to you, my reader, where do you guesstimate these dates?
Yes I ignore the possibility or relatively plausibility of a technological “singularity” occurring – This list is my estimate in case a hard take-off of A.I. does, for some reason, not occur.
Update as always reddit gives me some fierce dismissal, and I am going to the source in terms of updating the below guesstimates. If I rephrase a guesstimate, or update a guesstimate I will post in superscript updated and mention the debate, consensus and feedback down below. Please keep insults in any comments to a minimum, thank you very much, I am a sensitive girl.
| 2020 | First developed nation corporation-funded >b>trials (beyond research) to actively mitigate the effects of aging with existing substances such as Metformin, Rapamycin, etc. |
| 2021 | First developed nation implements a basic income. |
| 2022 | The United States implement single payer health care. |
| 2023 | First human babies born of which can be determined with certainty significant portions of their genome have been ‘improved’ or ‘repaired’. |
| 2024 | First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that the effects of aging can be significantly mitigated in vertebrate animals. |
| 2025 | Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 90 years. |
| 2025 | First widely publicized private sector “hacking” attempted to significantly (years) extend life by means of genetic stem cell treatments that turn having tangible measurable physiological beneficial results, but do not pass scientific peer review in terms of proving this is aging mitigation; Very sharp decline in available jobs world wide. Most countries have double unemployment levels relative to 2015 – period of mass global instability and protests. |
| 2026 | Temporary period of decreasing lifespan that lasted a decade is reversed in the United States – average lifespan start slowly going up again. |
| 2027 | Nearly all cancers can now be cured. |
| 2028 | First developed nation corporation-funded trials (beyond research) to actively significantly constrain the effects of aging with existing substances in humans. |
| 2029 | First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that the effects of aging can be significantly mitigated in higher order mammals; first country attempts (albeit briefly) to make treatment or reversal of aging illegal. |
| 2030 | First |
| 2031 | First effective treatment of diseases using animate nanotechnology (nanoids). |
| 2032 | First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that the effects of aging can be mitigated in monkey studies. |
| 2033 | First human born in zero G environment in space. |
| 2034 | First developed nation corporation-funded trials (beyond research) to halt mitigate the effects of aging with existing substances such as Metformin, Rapamycin, etc. |
| 2035 | |
| 2036 | First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that the effects of aging can be mitigated in humans. |
| 2037 | Most the developed world has implemented some form of basic income. |
| 2038 | Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 100 years. |
| 2039 | |
| 2040 | First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that aging can be halted in humans, assuming extremely expensive, invasive and uncomfortable treatments. |
| 2041 | Most forms of mental diseases can be cured. |
| 2042 | First developed nation corporation-funded trials (beyond research) to actively reverse the effects of aging with existing substances. First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that aging can be reversed in vertebrate animals; First country in the world makes procreation without genetically repairing imperfections illegal. |
| 2044 | |
| 2045 | Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 110 years, largely due to advances in regular treatments and better and more affordable care for the elderly. |
| 2046 | |
| 2047 | |
| 2048 | First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that aging can be reversed in higher order mammals. |
| 2049 | |
| 2050 | Most commonly occurring diseases can now be cured, if treatment starts promptly. |
| 2051 | |
| 2052 | First known peer reviewed scientific study reports strong statistical certainty that aging can be reversed in humans. |
| 2053 | |
| 2054 | First human infants born that have been genetically altered as to significantly increase their average lifespan. |
| 2055 | |
| 2056 | Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 120 years, largely due to advances in regular treatments and better and more affordable care for the elderly but increasingly because of mitigation or reversal of aging. |
| 2057 | |
| 2058 | Most forms of mental diseases are now cured in most countries in the world. |
| 2059 | |
| 2060 | First country makes treatment of aging obligatory by law for its citizens. |
| 2061 | |
| 2062 | |
| 2063 | |
| 2064 | |
| 2065 | Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 130 years. |
| 2066 | |
| 2067 | |
| 2068 | |
| 2069 | |
| 2070 | Most countries in the world have made births of humans without having first fixed any genetic errors illegal or some form of child abuse. |
| 2071 | |
| 2072 | |
| 2073 | |
| 2074 | Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 140 years. |
| 2075 | Almost every country in the world has some kind of single payer health care. |
| 2076 | |
| 2077 | |
| 2078 | |
| 2079 | |
| 2080 | The poorest country in the world now has a better average standard of living than the richest country in 2015. |
| 2081 | |
| 2082 | Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 150 years. |
| 2083 | |
| 2084 | |
| 2085 | |
| 2086 | |
| 2087 | First country in the world makes having children without implementing significant genetic upgrades (i.e. transhumanism) to their genome illegal. Most countries in the world have made births of humans without having first fixed any genetic errors illegal or some form of child abuse. |
| 2088 | |
| 2089 | Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 150 years. |
| 2090 | |
| 2091 | |
| 2092 | |
| 2093 | |
| 2094 | |
| 2095 | Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 160 years. |
| 2096 | |
| 2097 | |
| 2098 | |
| 2100 | The vast majority of human beings living in developed economies can (if so desired) obtain indefinite youth and broad range health from simple, comfortable and affordable biogerontological treatments; Average lifespan for people in a specific country (both sexes) rises above 170 years; Audrey de Grey celebrates her 147th birth date. |
If you disagree with me on some dates or other guesstimates (or want me to add new categories of guesstimates), please email me and I may add some of these comments below here.
Relevant Comments
User runnyhungo via /r/IsaacArthur comments
its already wrong, rejuvenation treatments is already in human trials for Parkinson’s disease, and uses vastly more advanced methods than Metformin (which was discovered in 1922). The cause of Parkinson’s disease is the aging process of gradually losing cells that die for a million reasons we can’t stop, but stem-cells can replace the lost cells so that’s rejuvenation. It should be noted that before 2000-ish they actually tried to prevent the cells from dying in the first place, from a million different causes, none of which were properly understood. Hence today people think rejuvenation is properly impossible, like lightsaber impossible not supersonic flight impossible.
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